A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
